PARIS. The political earthquake did not materialize, but the success of the newly formed alliance Nupe is a sensation in the small things.
For the first time since he became president, Emmanuel Macron is being challenged from the left. At the same time, his party looks set to become the largest in the National Assembly for the next five years as well, even if its own majority can go nowhere.
Welcome to the French parliamentary elections, a mathematical overture full of fog curtains and surprises.
Just over a month after the presidential election, it was time again, and no one can claim that the French parliamentary election movement boiled over this year. War in Europe, inflation and escalating food prices have simply stood in the way of elections to the National Assembly.
Nevertheless, May and June have been dominated by a clear political figure in France. Jean-Luc Mélenchon launched his new election campaign even before the presidential election was over, with the message that he intended to unite the divided left before the parliamentary elections and himself aim to become prime minister.
Said and done. While Emmanuel Macron engaged in foreign policy and Marine Le Pen took a leave of absence after the loss in the presidential election, the left-wing French leader Mélenchon negotiated with the Socialist Party, the Communist Party and the Green Party. And finally he got together the alliance Nupes, short for the new ecological and social union of the People, and distributed the candidacies in the 577 constituencies between the Conquered France and the candidates of the alliance parties.
It was not free, several leading socialists left the former state-supporting party in protest against Mélenchon, which they perceive as far too extreme.
In just a few weeks, the four parties have managed to agree on an increase in the country’s minimum wage, on a price freeze on basic goods during ongoing inflation and a reduction in the retirement age from 62 to 60 years. It is more difficult, among other things, with the view of the EU, where Mélenchon belongs to the skeptics, and of the war in Ukraine, where the same Mélenchon has a long history of pro-Russian stances and today does not want to supply Ukraine with weapons.
If we win the parliamentary election, Macron has no choice, then he must appoint me prime minister, Mélenchon said early on. Of course not. But it is true that the custom is that a party that gets its own majority in the National Assembly may also form a government, regardless of the political color of the incumbent president. That the country is governed in this way, a so-called cohabitation with a right-wing president and a left-wing majority or vice versa, is not news in France. And the hammering of the post of prime minister seems to have had an effect on the often disillusioned French left-wing voters.
Tonight’s results did not give a clear indication of what the final distribution of seats will look like after the second round next Sunday. But it gives an indication that France has a new political force to count on. After almost ten years of desert wandering, when the Socialist Party imploded, the Green Party mixed good local results with substandard ones on the national stage and other radical parties most quarreled with each other, the French left is back with a message.
– The ruling party is defeated and defeated, Mélenchon drummed on in his first appearance after the provisional election result at 20 o’clock in the evening.
It was in many ways a French political illusionist who spoke. The first estimates on Sunday night point to a very even race, possibly with a marginal victory for Mélenchon’s alliance before Emmanuel Macron’s ruling party. Both parties collect just over 25 percent each according to the first forecasts. But because of the system in which the winner takes everything in each constituency, similar to the US presidential election, Macrons and his coalition parties would have between 255 and 295 seats retained if today’s results were final. 289 is needed to form a majority in Parliament. This means that the governing party would probably lose its own majority in the National Assembly if today’s results were final.
That is not the case now. Next Sunday, the most successful candidates in each constituency will face each other, in most cases a left-wing candidate against Macron’s representative.
Several French political experts believe that the incumbent president has more leeway to form alliances and reach insecure voters until then. Not least with the help of the reserve of traditional right-wing voters who tonight saw their party come home just over 13 percent and who in most cases are expected to end up behind Macron in the next round. But Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s revival of the French left has already shaken political France once. Possibly tonight’s results could attract French soffliggare, who did not really dare to believe in the left winds in public opinion, to go to the polls next Sunday.
For soffliggarna, the biggest political force in France is this evening. Just over 47 percent of French voters went to the polls in high-hot France today (next weekend, record seasonal temperatures are expected, from 34 in Paris to 41 degrees in Albi, in the Toulouse region). It is the lowest turnout in the Fifth Republic, that is, since 1958. And even if it is only a few decimals lower than the last election in 2017, the trend is clear. From a turnout of 65 percent in 2002, French democracy has lost legitimacy in parliamentary elections after each term.
Right-wing extremist Marina Le Pen, who rose in April as the final candidate in her second straight presidential election, looks set to win just under 19 percent tonight. In an electoral system with two rounds and which by its nature punishes extreme parties, her National Assembly is not expected to gather any major group of members of the French parliament this year either. Even more right-wing radical Éric Zemmour’s party Reconquête has collapsed like a house of cards after the presidential election and with tonight’s barely four percent, it does not look like entering the National Assembly at all.
Next Sunday, the French go to the polls again to choose between today’s most successful candidates in each constituency. Emmanuel Macron’s governing coalition has the knife to its throat. This time the challenger comes from the left.