The unilateral announcement by Bamako, Monday June 6, 2022, to extend the transition for a period of two years, while negotiations with the West African organization are still in progress, changes the situation. ECOWAS “regretted” this decision while maintaining the dialogue. The talks had dragged on since the introduction of economic sanctions against Mali in January, but many signals seemed to show that a compromise was close. A little more than three days after the publication of the presidential decree which surprised everyone, the tongues of diplomats are loosened.
A high-ranking diplomat denounces “ a unilateral and unfortunate decree “, a ” mistake » put on the account of « impatience ” certainly ” understandable of Bamako, but which could push certain Heads of State to make new demands, or even to refuse on principle » the duration chosen by Bamakowhich places ECOWAS in front of a fait accompli.
A form of concession
Some note, however, as junta supporters point out, that the additional 24 months starting at the end of March, and not on the date of the announcement or at the end of April as Prime Minister Choguel Maïga had previously announced . There are already only 22 left. The Malian decree would therefore be a form of concession from Bamako, a pledge of goodwill.
In the hope of obtaining the lifting or alleviation of ECOWAS sanctions, the Malian authorities can still present a precise and credible timetable for the organization of future elections.
Leave ECOWAS?
Another track: carry out a government reshuffle, the opportunity for a political opening and a change of Prime Minister. The head of Choguel Maïga being claimed more and more loudly, by more and more voices, in and out of Mali. It should be noted that rumors of his ouster have been circulating for months, and that the head of government is still indeed in office.
Last major argument, this time in the form of a threat: still from a diplomatic source, Mali would not exclude, in the event of another failure, to slam the door of ECOWAS. An economically and politically risky option. But the Malian transitional authorities have already shown that they are not the type to back down in the face of obstacles.
The mediator appointed by ECOWAS, Goodluck Jonathan, is expected in Bamako. No date has yet been set for his next visit.