NUPES. The Nupes announced a program of 650 measures in view of the legislative elections, the first round of which will take place this Sunday, June 12. Are the polls turning in favor of Nupes?
[Mise à jour le 8 juin à 22h18] According to the latest Ipsos poll, published this Wednesday, June 8, 2022, Nupes, led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, would obtain 27.5% of voting intentions in the first round of the legislative elections, neck and neck with Together!, which would come to 28%. Among the main concerns of the French, the Ipsos survey indicates that purchasing power comes first with 57% ahead of the health system (34%) and the environment (31%). Can Nupes benefit from this?
According to the poll, the left would again become the first opposition group, with the Nupes evaluated in a range of 160 to 200 seats, which could be joined by 8 to 18 Miscellaneous Left deputies. The first results have fallen and allow the union of the left to nourish hopes. Indeed, the French established outside France have already voted for the 1st round of the ballot. The analysis of the figures is clear: LREM-NUPES duels in 10 of the 11 constituencies concerned. The candidates invested by Jean-Luc Mélenchon even came first in two constituencies, the 5th (Spain, Portugal, Andorra, Monaco) and the 9th (Maghreb and West Africa). For the New Popular Ecological and Social Union, could this be a draft of the duels to be expected in the second round?
If the trend shows the union of the left as the main opponent of Emmanuel Macron and his candidates, this LFI-EELV-PCF-PS alliance does not fail to be attacked on its project, starting with the president of the Republic. “I read the NUPES program. They quote the word taxation 20 times and the word prohibition 30 times, which gives a fairly clear idea of the spirit of the program. It is a freedom project, no doubt Won’t that drive people crazy?” he said in an interview with the regional daily press. What do the left parties propose for the legislative elections? Who are their candidates? What score can they aim for?
650 measurements. This is the program on which rebellious France, Europe Ecologie-Les Verts, the French Communist Party and the Socialist Party have agreed in view of the legislative elections, with several key measures, taking up the main lines of Jean-Pierre’s presidential project. Luc Melenchon. The proposals made by the various parties are divided into eight themes: social progress, jobs and retirement; ecology, biodiversity, climate, commons and energy; wealth sharing and tax justice; public services ; Sixth Republic and democracy; safety and justice, equality and the fight against discrimination; European Union and international. If the alliance details on its website all of its proposals, some are to be retained and may be able to make the difference depending on the concerns of the French. Purchasing power is the subject that worries the French the most. La Nupes proposes to revalue the Smic to 1500 euros net or even a 6e week of paid vacation. Here are the main measures of the Nupes program:
- Smic at 1500 euros net
- Passage to 32 hours of work per week for arduous or night jobs
- 6e week of paid vacation
- Establish a maximum quota of precarious contracts
- Establish a dignity guarantee and an autonomy allowance for young people of €1,063/month.
- Restore retirement at age 60
- Restore ISF
- Launch a depollution plan for the maritime facades of France
- Reopening of closed train lines
- Include the green rule in the Constitution
- Establish the RIC
- Establish the Sixth Republic
- Introduce proportional representation for the legislative elections
However, who says alliance, necessarily says divergences. 33 points of the program will be “nuanced” by political organizations and “put to the wisdom of the Assembly”. They mainly concern the energy mix defended by the PCF, while the Socialist Party will not support the framing of agricultural prices by maximum prices. The PCF will not support the right to vote at 16, when LFI will propose to repeal the concordat of Alsace-Moselle and the various specific statutes in force in the Overseas Territories. The PS and the PCF will propose a public debate on the question of the legalization of cannabis, LFI and the PCF want France to withdraw from NATO and then its dissolution, as well as a withdrawal of the army present in the Sahel.
The project does not fail to be increasingly decried as the election approaches, in particular by members of La République en Marche. Judged “communitarian and authoritarian” by Amélie de Montchalin, Minister for the Ecological Transition, worthy of “Soviet regulation” according to Christophe Castaner, the boss of the LREM deputies, leading to a “submission to Russia” and in which there would be ” 20 times the word taxation and 30 times the word prohibition “according to Emmanuel Macron, the program of the union of the left does not fail to react. For François Hollande, “the program is infeasible, inapplicable.”
But Jean-Luc Mélenchon denies it. “We have quantified the entire economic program by bringing it into the economic matrix of the Banque de France. 250 billion will be injected. When they have finished their circuit, that is to say when they have been used in investments, distributed in wages, used in equipment, etc… At the other end, they go up in taxes and social security contributions. According to this matrix, we will have 267 billion in revenue at the exit”, he said. he detailed during a press conference on June 7, before adding: “our message to the country is that they can have confidence in us.”
Although they are less numerous than for the presidential election, several polls concerning the legislative elections have been carried out since the start of the campaign. And it is an understatement to say that the union of the left seems to be bearing fruit. According to various institutes, the NUPES is given neck and neck with LREM in the first round of the ballot, organized on June 12. The candidates representing Jean-Luc Mélenchon would collect, at the national level, around 25% of the votes, i.e. a level similar to that of the Macronists (a margin of error of around 2pts is however to be taken into account).
In this context, can the left begin to dream of having a majority in the National Assembly? Not so fast. Because according to the projections on the number of seats obtained by political color, it is indeed the coalition of the presidential majority which is given in the lead. But the NUPES would however allow the left to return in force to the Bourbon palace. While only 73 deputies of this obedience (LFI, PCF, PS, PRG, EELV, DVG) have been present since 2017, the alliance could contain around 170 deputies on June 19. The majority is 289 seats.
This is the element of language repeated over and over again: Jean-Luc Mélenchon Prime Minister! Since the evening of the defeat of the leader of La France insoumise in the first round of the presidential election, his supporters cherish the sweet dream of seeing him settle in Matignon. But how, when Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of the Republic? The objective of the Insoumis is clearly displayed: to win the legislative elections and impose cohabitation on the Head of State. After the failures of access to the second round in 2017 and 2022, attributed to a left unable to unite to return to power, the quarrels and invectives of the campaign quickly gave way to discussion between the different formations. Ignoring (or almost) disagreements and uniting around a common project with the same aim appeared undeniable on the left to prevent La République en Marche from implementing its program. Will the goal be achieved?
For the legislative elections, the New Popular Ecological and Social Union has invested one candidate in each of the 577 constituencies. With a distribution according to the parties according to the score obtained in the presidential election. Thus, 326 candidates are related to La France insoumise, when 80 are from EELV, 70 from the PS and 50 from the PCF. The rest of the nominations correspond to candidates from other environmental currents or non-agreement nominations for overseas territories and Corsica.
Several leading figures from the various political movements present themselves. Manuel Bompard, who will try to succeed Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the Bouches-du-Rhône, Alexis Corbière, Danielle Simonet, Clémentine Autain, Adrien Quatennens, Eric Coquerel or even Raquel Garrido for LFI; Julien Bayou, Sandrine Rousseau or Delphine Batho for EELV and ecologists; Olivier Faure and Valérie Rabaud on the PS side; Fabien Roussel for the PCF.
The Arlesian of the presidential finally quickly became reality. Despite some tensions, LFI, EELV, the PS and the PCF have agreed on a union for the legislative elections, under the banner of the New Popular Ecological and Social Union (NUPES). 25 years that this was expected, since the plural left implemented by the PS to make Lionel Jospin the Prime Minister of Jacques Chirac. This political force, which appears to be the second in the country in view of the results of the presidential election, can it shake up Emmanuel Macron and force him to make Jean-Luc Mélenchon his Prime Minister?