TOGETHER. A few days before the legislative elections, Emmanuel Macron and his relatives are trembling: the President of the Republic may not have an absolute majority in the National Assembly. The presidential majority is shaken by the emergence of the Nupes in the French political landscape.
[Mis à jour le 7 juin 2022 à 21h29] What if Emmanuel Macron did not obtain a majority in the National Assembly? Unthinkable a few weeks ago on the evening of the re-election of the President of the Republic, the idea is gaining ground. In addition, the latest polls show that the Ensemble coalition of the presidential majority (LREM, Horizons, Agir, Modem, Radical Party, In Common, Territories of Progress) is dangerously hounded by the New Popular Ecological and Social Union.
This is the case of the latest survey from Harris Interactive-Toluna for Challenges published on Tuesday, June 7. The Together coalition, for the presidential majority, is credited with 26% of voting intentions in the first round of the legislative elections, just ahead of the New Popular Ecological and Social Union (24%). According to this same poll, the Together coalition (LREM, MoDem, Agir, Horizons) would win, in the second round, between 285 and 335 seats, granting it the majority (289 seats), barring a cataclysm. For its part, the Nupes could have between 120 and 184 elected officials at the Bourbon Palace. Something to reassure the President of the Republic and his entourage.
However, another survey published the same day highlights a possibility: that Emmanuel Macron does not obtain an absolute majority in the National Assembly. Thus, the new Ifop-Fiducial poll for LCI indicates that the New Popular Ecological and Social Union would be at the top of the voting intentions. Thus, 26% of French people would be ready to vote for Nupes in the first round. This would place the union of the left in front of the presidential majority, credited with 25% in this poll. However, Together! retain a majority in the National Assembly after the second round. Thus, the gathering of majority parties would manage to retain 250 to 290 seats. This number is low compared to that expected by Emmanuel Macron. Indeed, to have a majority in the National Assembly, it is necessary to hold 289 seats of deputies. The first opposition party would be the Nupes with 195 to 230 deputies.
This elbow-to-elbow can be seen at the ballot box. On the weekend of Saturday June 4 and Sunday June 5, French people living abroad were called upon to express their voice in order to choose their deputies. In almost all the constituencies involved, Together and Nupes qualified in the second round. The New Popular Ecological and Social Union thus places ten candidates out of eleven constituencies in the second round of the legislative elections.
As in 2017, Emmanuel Macron has forged an alliance in order to obtain the majority in the legislative elections. However, the content of the coalition set up in 2022 is very different from that of five years ago. By a simple agreement with the MoDem of François Bayrou, the President of the Republic moved to a confederation bringing together six political parties in addition to the party he founded in 2016. United under the banner “Together”, LREM, the MoDem , Agir (Franck Riester), Horizons (Edouard Philippe), Territory of Progress (Olivier Dussopt), In Common (Barbara Pompili’s party chaired by Philippe Hardouin) and the Radical Party (Laurent Hénart) have sealed a support pact for Emmanuel Macron , conducting negotiations for the distribution of constituencies. Thus, according to the agreement reached, 400 nominations were reserved for LREM, between 101 and 110 for the MoDem, as well as 58 for Horizons, the other formations each winning less than 10 constituencies.
A coalition which is however not without risk, worries one in Macronie. In particular vis-à-vis Edouard Philippe. If the former Prime Minister has always shown his loyalty to the Head of State, his political weight, but also his sympathy side (favorite political personality of the French), grant him the status of both ally and dissident of weight. in case of disagreement. Because if Emmanuel Macron does not obtain the majority (289 seats) with the only LREM candidates and it is the deputies stamped Horizons who allow him, the political force of his ex-tenant of Matignon will only be increased tenfold, him who can then brandish the threat of not voting in favor of a text emanating from the government or the parliamentary majority. In 2017, LREM had won 314 seats, ending however with 268 deputies after several splits and, therefore, without an absolute majority on its own.
For the legislative elections, far fewer polls than during the presidential election are carried out by the various institutes. However, surveys on voting intentions are carried out and make it possible to obtain a snapshot, at the moment T, of what the next National Assembly could look like. According to the results of the studies carried out, “Together” would win between 24 and 26% of the votes cast in the first round. A score which would be noticeably close to that of the NUPES, a margin of error of approximately 2 points being to be taken into account. On the other hand, according to the projections, it is LREM and its allies who would obtain the majority of the seats in the Bourbon palace. But as seen above, an absolute majority is far from guaranteed, since 289 seats are needed to be in the majority. According to the latest figures, Together would win between 250 and 290 places in the hemicycle. Currently, the presidential majority represents 350 seats.
If the polls do not predict the choice of voters and the final result of the legislative elections, the trend gives the coalition “Together” majority in the National Assembly, although the deputies of Emmanuel Macron would be fewer than in 2017. During the presidential election, the President of the Republic came out on top in the first round in 266 constituencies, before being placed in the lead in 418 of them in the second. However, on April 24, neither Jean-Luc Mélenchon nor any representative of the NUPES were present given the voting method.
Did La République en Marche really become “Renaissance”?
In recent days, the news of the change of identity of La République en Marche has circulated a lot. After being called En Marche when it was founded six years ago, then LREM once Emmanuel Macron in power, the political formation had to change its name to be called “Renaissance”. The announcement was made by Stanislas Guerini, Thursday, May 5, 2022, during a press conference at party headquarters. “It is indeed a change in nature and name that we are initiating. It is a refoundation of LREM to build a presidential party which will be called Renaissance”, he explained. Exit LREM, make way for Renaissance? Not quite.
This modification is not definitive. Above all, the announcement could be premature. This is what explains Playbook, citing an inside party source. The majority would be visibly “surprised” to have learned of this announcement of the name change of the main party in the ruling coalition. This same term “Renaissance”, already used as the name for the LREM list in the 2019 European elections, should in reality be used for a “refounding process” to merge LREM into a larger whole. This union which “will absorb the small parties”, according to the source of Playbook, should also include “Agir” and “Territories of progress”, small formations on the same political line as LREM. A hypothesis that Stanislas Guérini seemed to confirm during his visit to RTL on May 6: “We have decided to launch the creation of a new political party, which will be called Renaissance, it is not done yet, but which will bring together (…) political parties, this is the proposal that we we are going to do to our partners, I am thinking of Agir, of Territories of progress (…)”. All with the aim of “creating a broader political party”, he explained. The transition from LREM to Renaissance is therefore not for now.