Would the indicators go back to red? For the past few days, “we have already seen a slight increase (…) in viral circulation” of the coronavirus, Guillaume Spaccaferri, epidemiologist at Public Health France, said at a press conference on Friday June 3. Over seven days, the increase represents 19.5% of additional cases, indicates Public health Francewhich reports an average of 25,054 new cases in 24 hours as of June 3.
While the number of Covid-19 cases has been falling steadily for two months, after having reached two successive peaks in recent months, against a backdrop of the rise of the Omicron variant, should we be worried about seeing the trend reverse?
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If it is premature to be concerned about the consequences concerning hospital tension, “we are probably entering a phase of epidemic rebound”, notes with L’Express Yannick Simonin, virologist and research professor at the University of Montpellier.
This increase in contamination is explained by a change in the sub-variants of Omicron in France: the BA.4 and BA.5 strains are increasingly identified when the virus genome is sequenced, according to the latest Flash surveys of May 16 reported by Public Health France. If BA.2 (and its sub-lineages) remained in the majority on May 16 with 94% of the 837 interpretable sequences of the Flash S20 survey, “we must be around 20% of BA.4 and BA.5 who are in the process of become the majority in France (…)”, advances the specialist.
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Discovered in South Africa, these new strains are more transmissible, but no study indicates that they are more virulent. “The South African and Portuguese experiences provide us with the first fairly reassuring elements in terms of severity, and confirm to us that the three-dose vaccination schedule associated with the immunity acquired by previous infections protects well against serious forms”, completes with from L’Express Antoine Flahault, director of the Institute of Global Health and professor at the Faculty of Medicine in Geneva. Whether in South Africa or Portugal, these sub-variants have become largely the majority and have caused recent waves of contamination.
Does the wave in Portugal arrive in France?
In the Iberian country, the number of cases has stabilized in recent days (26,848) but 47 Covid deaths were recorded on Wednesday June 1 – the highest daily death toll since February 17, when 51 deaths from disease have been reported. “This new wave is nevertheless currently associated in Portugal with a notable increase in hospital morbidity and mortality from Covid-19, since the country of 10.3 million inhabitants, yet very covered by the vaccine, registers nearly 50 daily deaths, the equivalent of more than 300 deaths per day in France (which knows less than 40 today), “warns Antoine Flahault.
If the wave linked to the two new sub-variants BA.4 and BA.5 of Omicron seems about to culminate in Portugal at the beginning of June, it could start in other European countries such as Spain or even Germany. Among our neighbors across the Rhine, the share of BA.5 represented 5.2% of cases between May 16 and 22, a figure increasing every week according to official data.
“The rise in the epidemic is not surprising”
If a situation such as that currently experienced by Portugal is one of the possible scenarios in France, the health situation will take shape more in the days to come. In France, this epidemic rebound is heterogeneous, the dynamics not being identical between the regions. “For the moment, the trends by territory remain unclear. With the recent public holidays, it is difficult to analyze these figures precisely”, confides Yannick Simonin. To see a little more clearly, we will have to wait until the end of the holidays, but the first figures give the trend. “The positivity rate is up 3%, it’s not very high, but it’s still a sign of the start of a recovery,” he explains.
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Between May 24 and May 30, Public Health France reports that the drop in the incidence rate continued in the majority of departments in mainland France, with the exception of Gers (219, +17%), Haute -Vienne (245, +13%), Yvelines (225, +12%), Creuse (154, +9%), Val-de-Marne (218, +5%) and Paris (239, +5%). The highest rates were observed in Finistère (290, -11%) and Loire-Atlantique (258, -18%).
Blame the BA.4 and BA.5 variants? Not only according to Yves Buisson, epidemiologist and president of the Covid-19 cell of the National Academy of Medicine contacted by L’Express. The specialist lists a succession of factors to explain the halt in the decrease in contamination: “All the barrier measures have fallen and vaccination has been stopped everywhere, it is clear that the vaccination rate does not change more than a week to week. All things considered, the rise in the epidemic is not surprising.”
For several months, the government has dropped health restrictions with the end of the use of the health pass (except in health establishments) and the end of the obligation to wear a mask in public places or transport. “The end of the wearing of the mask came too soon. There were obviously electoral ulterior motives. We would have had to wait one or two more months”, comments Yves Buisson.
A very different variant would “reshuffle the cards”
Faced with the resumption of the epidemic, maintaining barrier gestures and wearing facial protection for people at risk remain strongly recommended. If the circulation of Covid-19 responds more to the rules of variants and sub-variants, seasonality could play a slight protective role. “Certainly, in favor of the summer, the magnitude of the wave could be reduced by more interactions outside, better ventilation of the interior premises”, concedes Antoine Flahault. For the moment, the circulation of these subvariants should not lead to an increase in hospitalizations or mortality, thanks to the combo “multiple doses of vaccinations and infections linked to Covid-19”.
If vaccination has made it possible to greatly reduce the ratio of infections/hospitalizations – injections protecting against serious forms – we must not let go of the reins on this aspect. Indeed, the health sky could darken from the month of September, with temperatures brought to cool down and a dissemination of influenza viruses expected as every year.
“Vaccination, even if it is withering away, remains our best weapon. We must prepare for other vaccination campaigns,” warns Yannick Simonin. The watchword is as follows: anticipate to avoid a wave this autumn which could have a higher magnitude. “The risk would be to see a very different variant emerge which would reshuffle the cards. For the moment, we see nothing worrying on the horizon, we will manage with the Omicron family”, concludes Yves Buisson.