After months of tensions and a Russian military build-up along the border with Ukraine, Russia will begin its major invasion early in the morning of 24 February. The day is followed by chaos. Ukraine’s highways are clogged again in a westerly direction by fleeing people.
A blitzkrieg is predicted for the far greater military power Russia. That will not be the case. Unlike when the country relatively bloodlessly illegally annexed the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, the West this time ends up behind Ukraine with weapons and harsh sanctions against Russia. At the same time, Ukraine surprises with its stubborn opposition.
This is how the war has developed since the beginning of the great invasion a hundred days ago.
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The first week of the war:
From Kyiv in the north to Odessa in the south, from Ivano-Frankivsk in the west to Kharkiv in the east, people are waking up to attacks and a country at war on the morning of 24 February.
The night after the invasion, President Volodymyr Zelensky changed his suit into a military green t-shirt and showed up with his staff in central Kyiv.
– We are all here and defend our independence and our country, and we will continue to do so, he says.
Condemnations and sanctions against Russia are not long in coming. The United States, the European Union and other countries are sending weapons and freezing Russian assets. Several sanctions packages are then introduced, and arms deliveries and financial support continue to flow to Ukraine. Russia is also being kicked out of international competitions and sporting events, while international companies are starting to leave the country.
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The withdrawal in the north
At the beginning of the war, the Russian forces advanced in the south and north, but Ukraine’s resistance was strong. Russia’s forces are struggling with logistics problems and progress is slow.
One month into the war, at the end of March, a shift takes place. Russia is beginning to withdraw its forces from the Kiev area and is focusing eastwards, towards the Donbass.
In the wake of Russia’s progress, terrible images are being wired out over the world. Civilians lie dead along the streets, in wells and basements. Reports of torture, rape and executions cause the outside world to be appalled.
Three weeks later, in mid-April, the Ukrainian government announces that the new major offensive in Donbass has begun.
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The dispute over Mariupol
The port city of Mariupol will be perhaps the foremost scene of the atrocities of war. In mid-March, a theater is bombed where civilians sought protection, despite the fact that “children” are written outside in Russian in large letters. 600 are believed to be killed in the attack, according to the news agency AP. People who manage to escape the besieged city testify to a lack of basically everything – food, water, medical care and medicines. And about a constant shelling that shatters the city.
The last Ukrainian defense is for weeks in the huge steelworks Azovstal and refuses to give up – until on May 20, they are finally ordered to lay down their arms. They are taken to Russian-controlled areas. Ukraine says it is working to get the soldiers exchanged for Russian prisoners of war. Russia says it will face military action. The fate of the soldiers is still unclear.
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Two injured Ukrainian soldiers photographed from inside the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol. The image is distributed by the Ukrainian military.
The NATO process – a historic moment
That Finland and Sweden would join the NATO defense alliance seems inconceivable – until 24 February. The NATO debate is rising to the top of the agenda and support for joining the alliance is rushing. The two countries will jointly submit their applications on 18 May.
Russia is reacting with threats of countermeasures and the security situation requires a rapid process, according to all involved. But Turkey, the NATO member who is going through a difficult balancing act in its relationship with the West and Russia, surprisingly throws in a no. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accuses Sweden of supporting the Kurdish guerrilla movement PKK, which has been branded terrorist by the UN, and demands action.
The “fast” process now seems to take months.
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The offensive in Donbass
One hundred days into the war, the most intense fighting is going on in the east. The Donbass region, which consists of Donetsk and Luhansk, has been ruled in part by Russian – backed separatists since 2014, with very close economic and military ties to Moscow.
Russian forces are trying to secure the entire area by taking control of the city of Sevierodonetsk, which is under heavy shelling and is said to be largely under Russian control.
In addition to the Crimean peninsula, Russia now controls an area that runs like an arch from east of Kharkiv in the north to just west of Kherson in the south. About one-fifth of Ukraine is now under Russian control, according to Zelensky.
Areas under Russian control or with Russian presence. February 24 – June 1.
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The victim of the war
Pictures of families where women and children stretch out from crowded trains to say goodbye to their fathers, spouses, brothers and friends have affected an entire world. According to the UN, more than 6.8 million people have fled Ukraine and another 8 million are estimated to be fleeing the country. The vast majority of them are women and children.
There are still uncertainties about the victims of the war. Ukraine claims that around 30,000 Russian soldiers have been killed since February, while British intelligence claims that there are around half as many. Information on the killings of Ukrainian soldiers is also scarce. Zelensky has said that hundreds are killed daily in the fighting that is now raging in the Donbass. Between 5,500 and 11,000 Ukrainian soldiers are estimated by US intelligence to have fallen by mid-April. The United Nations Human Rights Agency (OHCHR) has confirmed more than 4,100 civilian deaths, but the numbers are expected to be much higher.
The war has also triggered a global crisis with rising food and fuel prices. Russia and Ukraine, two of the world’s largest grain producers, cannot export their crops, while land remains unused in war-torn Ukraine. It particularly hits poor countries in Africa, where around 40 million people are at risk of starvation.