Weapons aid will play a big role in the outcome, but at the same time it would be very important to stop funding the Russian war machine, say researchers who visited this morning during the EU summit.
The fighting in Severodonetsk, which was at the center of the war in Ukraine in recent days, continues. Locally, perhaps the fiercest phase of the war is underway, the university lecturer said Ilmari Käihkö From the Swedish National Defense College.
– Russia is currently concentrating its forces in the Donbass region. The city of Severodonetsk is now in a pretty bad place. It is the last city in the Luhansk region, and if Russia now takes over, it will probably take over the entire Luhansk region, Käihkö said in ‘s morning on Monday.
Over the weekend, Ukraine has launched a counterattack in the south. According to Kähko, Ukraine may be trying to open a new front in the south so that Russia will have to move its troops out of the Donbas region.
So far, no sure information has been obtained on the success of Ukraine’s counterattack. The crucial moments are that Russia must be able to move forward in the Donbass to take a firm grip on the region, says Käihkö.
Ukraine has claimed that 30,000 Russian soldiers have already died during the war. The figures reported by Ukraine on Russia’s losses have been estimated at the upper end, but the magnitude is quite correct, says a researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute Jyri Lavikainen.
– Everyone says that Russia has suffered very heavy losses in terms of both equipment and crew. Attempts are being made to make up for it by reclaiming obsolete equipment and trying to recruit soldiers who might not have been fit at the start of the war.
According to Lavikainen, the means do not speak of despair, but rather a way of warfare.
– The style of Russia is such that it is passed through with superiority regardless of one’s own loss. It is only natural that when the goal is to take over the territories of Donetsk and Luhansk, we try to deal with it by any means.
Kähkö, on the other hand, adds that Russia has a fundamental problem: because Russia has not declared war, they are fighting as if in peacetime.
– They do not have significant control. Without declaring war, it will be very difficult for them to continue the attack if and when Ukraine is able to continue to inflict losses.
Ukraine is finally getting heavy equipment
It was reported on Friday that the United States was sending heavy rocket launcher systems to Ukraine. They can fire rockets up to hundreds of kilometers, far beyond Ukraine’s current systems.
According to Lavikainen, the attitude of Western decision-makers has recently changed in that they now dare to supply Ukraine with the much-needed heavy military equipment.
– It would have been better if it had been delivered from the first days of the war. But Russia was successfully able to present the matter in a way that could escalate the war too much or provoke them to do something even more dangerous.
Lavikainen estimates that the delivery of heavy equipment to Ukraine is very important for the outcome of the war. With heavy weapons, Ukraine will be able to repel attacks and perhaps later recapture lost territories, he says.
An EU summit, which has been preparing for weeks, will begin today in Brussels, Belgium, on Monday, focusing on the situation in Ukraine and support for the country. Both Käihkö and Lavikainen point out that there are other ways in the West to help than guns.
– Of course, the biggest would be to stop financing the Russian war machine, says Lavikainen.
– It is really a bit discouraging to support Ukraine at the same time as buying energy and minerals from Russia, says Käihkö.