An alarming study by the Observatoire de l’immigration et de la démographie (OID) reveals that the French asylum system could theoretically concern almost 7% of the world’s population, according to current criteria.
Worrying trends in numbers
The number of asylum seekers in France will have reached almost 600,000 by 2023, representing over 10% of the country’s foreign population, explains the OID. Asylum applications have exploded, rising by 245% between 2009 and 2023, reaching over 124,000 first applications in 2023 alone.
A complex legal system out of control
The French asylum system is based on the 1951 Geneva Convention and European law, both of which provide for no quantitative limits. The French Office for the Protection of Refugees and Stateless Persons (OFPRA) and the National Asylum Court (CNDA) operate largely independently of political power. The combined admission rate for these two bodies is 45% of applications.
An increasingly broad definition of criteria
The study highlights the gradual extension of asylum eligibility criteria. In addition to the political persecution initially targeted, the system now protects numerous “social groups”: women threatened by forced marriage or excision, LGBT people, victims of trafficking networks, ethnic minorities, and so on. Protection also extends to situations of generalized violence in certain countries.
Staggering potential figures
According to the analysis, some 580 million people worldwide would qualify for asylum in France if they were to apply. A British study reaches similar conclusions, with 730 million people potentially eligible in the UK.
A major European challenge
On a European scale, the situation is just as worrying, with over a million first-time asylum applications registered in the EU in 2023, a level comparable to the “migrant crisis” of 2015-2016. The recent European Pact on Migration and Asylum does not appear to provide a structural solution to this problem.
The text suggests that only far-reaching reforms of the asylum system could restore political control over these migratory flows, which today are essentially regulated by the physical ability of applicants to reach French territory.