In a detailed report, Météo-France and the National Center for Meteorological Research (CNRM) looked at what the country could be like by 2100, at the rate of current global warming. In mainland France and Corsica, the average warming attributed to climate change over the decade 2013-2022 is +1.7°C, compared to 1900-1930, the document immediately explains. In 80 years, the French climate reality could still change. “The average annual temperature in France could reach 14.2°C with peaks of 15°C in the Paris metropolitan area”, corresponding to the “current climate in the Montpellier region”, or even “beyond 18°C on the southern half” as today in Andalusia, explains Météo-France. That’s a warming of 4°C.
The former Minister of Ecological Transition Christophe Béchu had anticipated this in 2023, explaining that France had to adapt to a rise in temperatures of 4°C by the end of the century. In the study, several maps of the metropolis show the potential warming region by region by 2030, 2050 and 2100. The expected warming is however not uniform “between the south-east of the country and the Alps which are warming more and the northwest of the country a little less,” indicates the French weather observatory.
Warming more marked in summer than in winter
Season by season, “the warming is more marked in summer than in winter, of the order of 1°C”. On future precipitation, heavier or weaker depending on the region, uncertainty remains for a large part of France. However “in the extreme South-West, we have a majority of simulations which announce a decreasing signal” of rains, and “they show a slight increase in the North-East”, explained Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, deputy director of climatology from Météo-France, during a press point.
These lessons are the variation of simulations based on the “Reference warming trajectory for adaptation to climate change” (TRACC), a scenario retained by the government which must be imposed on all public policies. This TRACC requires France to prepare, whatever its efforts to reduce greenhouse gases, for the climate in mainland France to warm up by +2°C in 2030, +2.7°C in 2050 and + 4°C in 2100 compared to pre-industrial times. This projection of +4°C corresponds to a possible evolution of the climate in France if that of the entire planet increased by 3°C over the century, because warming is accentuated on the continents, in particular at the latitudes of temperate regions and in the poles.
“Thanks to a set of 17 climate simulations, we can now have a fairly clear idea of the increase in temperatures if States do not improve their greenhouse gas reduction objectives,” indicated Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, director scientific assistant for climatology and climate services at Météo-France. Current policies to reduce greenhouse gases are taking the world towards a “catastrophic” warming of 3.1°C over the century, according to the UN Environment.