By committing its responsibility to the budget and finance bill on social security, the government has tilted Emmanuel Macron’s new mandate into a new era, that of 49-3. This article of the Constitution allows the executive to force its texts through, with however some limitations. But its repeated use could weaken the head of state.
Ten times, maybe even 15 with the amending budgets. It is a rain of 49-3 which should fall on the National Assembly in the coming weeks. ” No choice “, According to the executive who highlights the ill will of the opposition. These watered the finance bill and the social security bill with thousands of amendments, making it impossible to examine the texts within the time allowed. And that should not work out, neither the National Rally, nor Les Républicains and even less the union of the left having the intention of releasing the pressure.
Emmanuel Macron forced to force through
No problem according to the Élysée, which recalls that the rules are made to be applied and that article 49-3 is not dishonoring. The executive even mocks that the oppositions would do better to think about the interest of the country rather than their political communication.
But for the moment, they do not flinch, convinced that the war of attrition in which they have launched will ultimately cost more to Emmanuel Macron.
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A president with his back to the wall?
The Head of State remains cautious for the moment: Article 49-3 can be used at will for budgetary texts. There is therefore no risk of paralysis of the administrations as may be the case in the United States. But be careful not to play with fire: Emmanuel Macron has hinted that he could go through a budget law to reform pensions, thus giving himself the possibility of forcing the hand of the Assembly. An option that can prove to be politically dangerous, with rebellious oppositions which would unite in a motion of censure to overthrow the government
The possibility of dissolution
Officially, Emmanuel Macron is not worried. The Head of State is betting on the fact that the oppositions will pay at the polls for their blockage in the Assembly. But above all, he intends not to get that far: the executive believes that the Republicans will be too afraid to return to the polls. However, it is their 62 deputies who decide whether or not to offer a majority during a motion of censure.
But other components of the opposition, in particular the National Rally and La France insoumise, would on the other hand be rather ready for a new electoral round. The two parties are convinced that in the event of dissolution, the presidential camp would still not obtain a majority in the Assembly and would even lose seats in the process.