From midnight tonight until 8pm on Sunday, we will no longer be able to talk about politics on RFI. We will enter the electoral reserve period before the second round of the legislative elections. Before playing the “king of silence”, let’s look at the balance of power and the stakes of this already historic election.
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Relative or absolute majority for the National Rally?
The RN is, in view of the balance of power, the only party that could obtain a majority. Even if we cannot rule out a huge turnaround (the New Popular Front is present in a sufficient number of constituencies, as is the presidential camp), Marine Le Pen’s party should win with its allies from the Republicans (Ciotti) at least nearly 200 seats, which would already be a powerful earthquake.
We would tip into the gigantic, if the RN obtained 289 deputies, synonymous with an absolute majority and therefore entry into government of the extreme right for the first time since the end of the Second World War.
This scenario is not, however, the most likely. This prospect has become more remote following the numerous withdrawals of candidates involved in the more than 300 three-way races.
These agreements between the presidential camp and the left, which together withdrew more than 200 candidates, could deprive the RN of around thirty decisive seats. Even if surprises can still happen in certain constituencies. The RN made historic breakthroughs in the first round, particularly in Brittany, where for the first time in history the far right qualified candidates for the second round.
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Unknowns remain
Among the factors that are difficult to predict: the famous vote transfers. Will left-wing voters, particularly those of La France Insoumise, turn out massively for a Macronist candidate? There are typical cases. As in Calvados where the former Prime Minister, Elisabeth Bornebenefiting from the withdrawal of an LFI candidate in the hope of beating the RN. But nothing indicates that the transfer of votes is towards Elisabeth Borne, outrageously criticized by LFI at the time of the pension reform adopted in 49-3.
In the opposite case, the same uncertainty. As in Seine-Maritime where a Horizons candidate withdrew in favor of the rebellious Alma Dufour. The president of the Horizons party, the former head of government Edouard Philippe, called for voting neither for the RN nor for La France Insoumise.
Added to this is the uncertain turnout. Even though the exceptional nature of the situation motivated voters last week, poll forecasts, however, give a roughly similar order of magnitude with 68% of voters expected on Sunday.
Beware of seat projections
Many polls are being published this week taking into account the withdrawals between the two rounds. However, they are only based on hypothetical transfers of votes. They are difficult to measure with precision: there are 501 different ballots, 90 of which are presented as uncertain (they will be played out roughly 51/49 between two candidates).
Finally, a very recent case law calls for the greatest caution. During the 2022 legislative elections, the latest polls published two days before the vote attributed less than 50 seats to the National Rally. The RN ultimately obtained 89 in the ballot boxes. This was already, at the time, a serious shock.
The issues in question: Will the Republican front be effective or will it be overwhelmed by the RN wave, which was quite impressive last week? In the event that the RN is in a relative majority, will it be far or close to 289 seats? If it is close, this would leave room for a coalition with right-wing MPs to lead the government. In the opposite case, of too few RN MPs, who will govern? How to forge a coalition between losers?
This has never been seen under the Fifth Republic, which was designed precisely so that the majority rule would prevail. This summer fog will therefore only dissipate on Sunday evening.
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