While the National Rally is still ahead in the polls for the European elections, the far-right bloc could obtain up to 45% of the votes in the ballot according to a latest study.
The polls follow one another and are similar as the European elections approach. All the studies published so far have predicted a victory for the far right, which is credited with 25 to 32% of voting intentions with a comfortable lead of between 8 and 12 points over the presidential camp, according to the polls. A trend confirmed again in mid-February by a study carried out by Opinionway for The echoes And Classical Radio. If these figures tell us nothing about the favorite place occupied by the Lepenist party, they specify the profiles of voters ready to support the National Rally.
The political party of Marine Le Pen manages to appeal to all age groups, but it is among voters aged 18 to 24 that he has his best harvest according to the Opinionway study. It is among young voters that the RN has the most voting intentions, i.e. 35%. Conversely, it is the oldest voters who are the least numerous to support the flame party, even if 22% say they vote for the extreme right, again according to the poll. According to the figures, the older voters get, the less likely they are to be ready to slip a National Rally ballot into the ballot box for Europeans.
45% of young people to vote for the extreme right and 45% for the left?
Young voters in the 18-24 age group are indeed the most likely to say they want to vote for Marine Le Pen’s party, which appears to be the preference within this segment of voters. In comparison, no other party reaches 20% of voting intentions. If we add the voting intentions of the 10% of young voters who support Eric Zemmour’s Reconquest party, the far-right bloc manages to gather 45% of the potential votes on its own.
After the far right, and especially after the RN, it is the left-wing forces which are vying for second place: France Insoumise and the Socialist Party both obtain 15% of the voting intentions and Europe-Ecologie-Les Verts the close behind with 14%. But the three forces belonging to Nupes could, if they joined forces, capitalize on their respective results and claim more than 40% of voting intentions, or even 45% and equalize the far-right bloc. The youth therefore seems divided into two camps, but the disunity of the left-wing parties in the face of the rise of the extreme right gives the advantage to the Lepenist party.
There is one camp that is not in the race with young voters: that ofEmmanuel Macron. Only 6% of voters aged 18 to 24 want to support the list of the presidential majority bringing together the Renaissance, MoDem and Horizons parties. The youngest voters are thus those who vote least for the party of the head of state, which receives between 15% and 22% of voting intentions among all other age groups. Young people are perhaps those who most wish to sanction the presidential camp for its actions in government? According to the survey, 42% of voters surveyed sided with voting for sanctions against the government.