The electricity transmission network (RTE) provides three possible scenarios for the use of load shedding and power cuts this winter. Some pessimistic forecasts arouse the annoyance of Emmanuel Macron.
“Fear scenarios are no!” Emmanuel Macron raises his voice this Tuesday, December 6, visibly annoyed by the various projections, in particular the most pessimistic energy managers. “Panic” had launched the President of the Republic on December 3 to try to calm things down and reassure the French in the face of possible power cuts this winter. A timid and unnoticed test in the flood of forecasts issued by the electricity transmission network (RTE) or even EDF which “are starting to scare people”. Traveling to Tirana, Albania, Emmanuel Macron took a few minutes in front of the press to reframe the energy sector and cut short the “scenarios of fear”. “The role of government, ministers, operators, is to do their job to provide energy, that’s all. And then to call everyone to responsibility so that there is sobriety. “
Since the publication of a government circular to the prefectures on the protocol to be followed in the event of load shedding, projections on power cuts and their frequency are going well, too much according to the government. The voices of RTE and EDF are not foreign to the phenomenon, they who share several scenarios according to the quantities of energy produced and consumed, sometimes even having a more alarmist discourse than the government. Statements that did not delight Emmanuel Macron. To ensure that energy professionals do not again exceed their field of competence, the tenant of the Elysée therefore insisted that the role of “authorities and public companies […] is not to transfer fear nor to govern by fear”.
RTE issues three scenarios for power outages
“Stop all that. […] We are going to hold out this winter”, finally concluded the Head of State calling on everyone to do their job and only their job. However, preparing for all scenarios, “as a preventive measure”, is part of the government’s missions. However, RTE has thought of three scenarios:
- High scenario: it implies drastic compliance with the measures of the sobriety plan and a rapid restart of the shut down nuclear power plants. So in the event of a cold winter, only a few occasional alerts could be issued by Ecowatt and no load shedding should be decided. This scenario has already been ruled out by RTE.
- Central scenario: here is the most probable hypothesis with correct but not optimal compliance with the sobriety plan and the partial restarting of part of the shut down nuclear reactors. So a little less than ten red alerts could be issued in the event of very cold temperatures but only half of them, or even less, could give rise to load shedding.
- Degraded scenario: this is the catastrophe scenario in which the sobriety plan would not be respected and the nuclear power plants would not restart. In which case even with a warm winter several Ecowatt alerts could occur and this number would double or triple in the event of a cold winter causing many power cuts.
This third “scenario of fear” is not a reality that we must fear several measures having been taken, and sometimes forced, in companies since October and with the restarting of at least some power plants expected during the winter season.