PRESIDENTIAL POLLS. Emmanuel Macron facing Marine Le Pen: this will be the poster for the second round of the 2022 presidential election on April 24. First polls putting them face to face have been published. Here are all the trends.
Presidential results near you
[Mis à jour le 11 avril 2022 à 08h37] The duel so announced by the polls in recent weeks will therefore take place. Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron will face each other on Sunday April 24 in the second round of the presidential election. At the end of the first round disputed on Sunday April 10, first polls and projections on this second round duel were published. Ispos Sopra Steria has published a poll for France Télévisions placing Emmanuel Macron in the lead in the second round with 54% of voting intentions against 46% for Marine Le Pen.
Other polls announce a tighter ballot with an uncertain outcome. One of them, produced by Elabe for BFM TV and broadcast on Sunday evening, places Emmanuel Macron also the winner but with a much smaller gap: 52 against 48% for the RN candidate. The polls published before the first round also make it possible to identify initial trends in the second round of the presidential election on 24th April next. The polling institutes have indeed published several polls by putting different candidates face to face with a view to the second round. In view of the dynamics displayed throughout the campaign, the Macron-Le Pen duel had already been tested many times with panels of voters.
We therefore know the second round duel of the 2022 presidential election. What do the polls say about this revenge between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, five years after an identical second round in 2017? Two polling waves can be used to get a more global view of voting intentions. First element: even before the first round of this 2022 presidential election was held, polls had been published in the event of a second round confrontation in the presidential election between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron. All the polls carried out before the first round this Sunday, April 10 gave Emmanuel Macron the winner. However, the gap narrowed as the first round approached, leaving doubts about the outcome of the ballot on 24th April next. These pre-first round polls are gradually being supplemented by new studies carried out on Sunday April 10 on the evening of the first round and after the proclamation of the first estimates and results.
What does the Sodoxa poll give on the 2nd round between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen? The results
A Sodoxa survey published Sunday evening which certainly places Emmanuel Macron there too with 54.5% of the voting intentions but the outgoing president would only convince 41% of voters against 34% for Marine Le Pen, 25% showing their uncertainty to vote, being able to favor the vote blank or zero. Sodoxa also draws up the sociology of the respective electorates of Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron: the popular categories and the 25-34 year olds position themselves more for Marine Le Pen while the wealthiest French people and the over 65s turn to Emmanuel Macron over 50%.
What do the Ifop poll figures say about the second round between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron?
What does the Ifop poll conducted for TFI-LCI after the first round of the presidential election Sunday April 10 in the evening? This poll carried out on the two qualified candidates for the second round, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, places the outgoing president in the lead with a narrow margin: 51% of voting intentions against 49% for Marine Le Pen. Above all, the institute specifies the voting intentions of voters who did not vote for the two candidates in the first round, a means of obtaining a first vision of the possible vote transfers for the second round. Thus the electorate of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, third man in this presidential election, is very divided: 33% intend to vote for Emmanuel Macron against 23% for Marine Le Pen while 44% lean for a blank vote, zero or abstention.
The electorate of Valérie Pécresse also appears divided: Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen would both obtain 35% of the voting intentions on this electorate when 30% do not position themselves. Unsurprisingly, Eric Zemmour’s electorate leans massively towards Marine Le Pen with 76% of voting intentions against only 4% for Marine Le Pen. It is the electorate of the EELV candidate Yannick Jadot who is most favorable to Emmanuel Macron. According to this Ifop poll carried out on Sunday April 10 in the evening, they are 56% to position themselves for a vote in favor of the candidate LREM against 6% for Marine Le Pen. 38% lean towards a blank, null or abstention vote.