(Finance) – i Use duties equal 25% in the automotive sectorannounced yesterday by the President Donald Trumpwould have a significant impact on the turnover of Italian companies: one can estimate one Loss between 1.4 and 3 billion euroswith damage especially the subcontractors (up to 2.5 billion) for their dependence on the European chain. On employment, The loss is equal to 9,700-15,500 seats in SMEs and in the establishments related to the export of the car sector. The subcontractors would be the most affected in relative terms, while the manufacturers of finished vehicles could mitigate the impact thanks to alternative productions in North America.
“The 25% duties announced by Trump are a blow to the heart of our small and medium -sized enterprises, already tried by years of difficult transitions and not kept promises. It is not just a question of turnover, which as well It could collapse up to 3 billion, But of an entire production system that risks losing 15,000 jobs, a price that Italy cannot afford. The supply chain, with subcontractors on the front line, is our connective tissue: If he gives in, to pay the consequences it will be an entire country. A response is not only defensive, with EU countermeasures, but a courageous turning point: diversify the markets, focus on electric with real incentives, not announcements. Otherwise, the 2025 will be remembered as the year in which we let a piece of our industrial identity die“, comments on the President of Unimpresa, Giovanna Ferrara.
According to the Study Center of Unimpresathe manufacturers of finished vehicles, such as Stellantis, They will see a drop in turnover between 61 and 200 million euros, linked to exports to the USA (406 million per year), with reduced margins or a flexion of 15-20%. The systems and models (such as Marelli P Bosch Italia) will lose between 100 and 225 million, while the subcontractors, backbone of the chain with 25 billion turnover, will undergo the hardest blow: a contraction between 1.2 and 2.5 billion, due to addiction to European export, especially German. Specialists (Motorsport and Aftermarket, such as Brembo) will limit the damage to 25-70 million. With 270,000 employed in the sector, Italy could lose up to 5.7% of jobs. The subcontractors, with 130,000 employees, risk between 7,000 and 10,000 cuts, concentrated in Piedmont and Lombardy. Stellantis could reduce 1,000-2,000 seats in the plants of Melfi and Pomigliano, while systems and models count 1,500-3,000 redundancies. The impact on specialists is less, with 200-500 risk positions. The Italian automotive sector is composed of different categories of companies: Producers of finished vehicles (Stellantis), systems and models (who provide complex systems), subcontractors (basic components and processes) and specialists (e.g. Motorsport and Aftermarket). In 2023, the total turnover of the Italian automotive supply chain was approximately 58.8 billion euros, with 2,135 active companies. The USAs represent a key destination for exports, with 74,731 vehicles exported in 2023 for a value of 2.85 billion euros, equal to 21% of the total Italian self -express.
As for the current turnover of vehicle producers, Stellantis, the main Italian player, generates around 20-25 billion euros in turnover attributable to Italian production (out of a global total of 189 billion euros in 2023). Export to the USA of Italian vehicles (eg Jeep Renegade and Fiat 500) is worth about 406 million euros per year. A 25% duty would increase the cost of exported vehicles by about 101.5 million euros. If transferred to consumers, the demand could drop by 15-20% (according to demand elasticity models), reducing the turnover of 61-81 million euros. If absorbed by Stellantis, the profit margins would be reduced by about 0.5-1% on the Italian Ebit, equal to 100-200 million euros of total loss. The clear estimate for the drop in turnover is between 61 and 200 million euros, according to the strategy adopted. Systems and Modelists – Aggoria, which includes companies such as Marelli and Bosch Italia – generated around € 1523 in 2023, with a growth of 9.3% compared to 2022.
THE’Export to the USA of complex systems (e.g. electronic, transmissions) is estimated at 1-1.5 billion euros. The reduction of the production of European vehicles for the USA (especially Germans, which use Italian components) could cut the demand for Italian systems of 10-15%, with a turnover of 100-225 million euros. All this would cause a drop in turnover between 100 and 225 million euros. Then there is the category of subcontractors (i.e. basic components and processes): they represent 70% of the companies in the supply chain (about 1,500 companies), generated 25 billion euros in 2023, but with a flex of 5-11% compared to 2022. Export to the US is indirectthrough the European chain (especially Germany), and is worth about 2-3 billion euros. A contraction in European exports to the US 15-20% would reduce the demand for Italian components of 6-10%, with a turnover of 1.2-2.5 billion euros, amplified by addiction to the German supply chain. The decrease in the estimated turnover is between 1.2 and 2.5 billion euros.
Then there are the specialists (Motorsport and Aftermarket): this segment, which includes giants such as Dallara and Brembo, generated around 5 billion euros in 2023, with a growth of 11.7%. Export to the US (brakes and racing parts) is estimated at 500-700 million euros. The niche of motorsport and aptermarket is less sensitive to duties on finished vehicles, but a reduction in demand for European cars could still cut the turnover of 5-10%, equal to 25-70 million euros. There could be a drop in turnover between 25 and 70 million euros.