Venezuela is voting this Sunday, July 28, to choose its next president. A tense election that pits the outgoing president Nicolas Maduro, who is seeking a third six-year term, against the opposition candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, who is the favorite in the polls.
5 min
The vote at Venezuela is highly anticipated and its outcome is more than uncertain. Independent polls show the opposition – which boycotted the 2018 election – as the clear winner. Facing its candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, the outgoing president Nicolas Maduro is seeking a third term, raising the specter of civil war if he is not re-elected. After eleven years in power, the man who has constantly muzzled his rivals does not seem ready to relinquish the reins of the country.
An unpopular Nicolas Maduro
There Chavista propaganda has deployed big guns to mask the unpopularity of his candidate. Nicolas Maduro was everywhere and gave interviews. On TikTokhe was seen dancing on stage. A few days ago, dozens of drones rose into the night sky of Maracaibo, the oil capital often without electricity, to draw the president’s face. They then depicted a rooster, the president’s campaign symbol, and then images of former President Hugo Chávez.
At 61, Nicolas Maduro is at stake for his political survival, but the former bus driver knows how to be resilient. He has prevailed over his internal rivals and survived the massive protests that followed his contested re-election in 2018. The Chavista president has also had to deal with an unprecedented economic crisis that has driven millions of Venezuelans into exile.
He was also forced to cut social programs and authorized the dollarization of the country, two decisions that actually worsened inequality. If polls are to be believed, Venezuelans are not willing to renew their trust in a government that they consider responsible for the current situation.
Read alsoVenezuelan presidential election: Would Nicolas Maduro agree to give up power in the event of defeat?
Edmundo Gonzales Urrutia, a discreet candidate
Few people knew Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia before he became the Venezuelan opposition candidate. Now Nicolas Maduro’s main rival In the presidential election, hopes for change rest mainly on this career diplomat. This candidate’s campaign was run hand in hand with the more media-friendly figure of the opposition: Maria Corina Machado.
Edmundo Gonzalez was the surprise of this spring. Because the opposition platform put him in the spotlight when it learned that it could not induct the philosopher Corina Yoris as a candidate. This was for technical reasons that have never been clarified.
Thus, Edmundo Gonzalez, the substitute candidate, has become the face of the opposition. Meeting after meeting, it is behind Maria Corina Machado, the opponent excluded from the votethat the former ambassador appears. An unusual strategy, but necessary in a country where opposition figures are constantly repressed. Taking advantage of Machado’s popularity, Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia is now the favorite in independent polls, despite his lack of eloquence and his shyness.
Moving from diplomatic posts to lobbying actions in some sixty countries including the United States, the man who has worked in the shadows throughout his career hopes to end Venezuela’s isolation and get the economy back on track. His priorities: reducing inflation while fighting corruption or restoring confidence in the judicial system. This by considering an amnesty for the Maduro clan. This is one of the possible paths to national reconciliation in several countries in transition, believes an expert in international relations, in a pragmatic way.
Participation, a major issue
If it wants to win, the Venezuelan opposition must manage to mobilize its electorate. And unlike its rivals, there is little voting discipline on the opposition side and there is no real opposition identity.
But, beyond the rejection of Nicolas Maduro’s ideas, going to the polls is a democratic issue. Because the authorities in place, who do not always follow the rules of the game, ensure that the opposition’s participation is very low, and thus hope to be able to win the election with the 30% of votes predicted by the polls. So, various organizations in the country are working to motivate voters and, above all, to reassure them.
” Voting machines cannot change your vote. Have confidence, because they have been checked and found to work properly. », Explains Luis Alberto Rodriguez, of the Voto Joven association, to our correspondent in Caracas, Alice Campaignolle.
There Distrust in the electoral system is widespreadespecially among young people, who have always known a government that reduces democratic space. However, experts say that electronic voting in Venezuela is reliable and trustworthy.
A campaign under high tension
In any case, this election brings to a close a presidential campaign that was stormy, with in particular the arrest of 135 people linked to the opposition, denounced the human rights NGO Foro Penal. From January to today, there have been 149 arbitrary arrests for political reasons (…) 135 are directly linked to what was the national tour and the campaign” of the opposition, its director, Gonzalo Himiob, told AFP. Most of them have already been released, some without even being prosecuted, but 47 are still deprived of their liberty today. ” he continued.
For weeks, the opposition has been denouncing a ” persecution policy ” of power with arrests, as well as administrative closures and fines imposed on merchants, hotels or restaurants that work with the opposition. In addition to the arrests, six collaborators of Maria Corina Machado took refuge in March at the residence of the Argentine ambassador, accused of conspiracy.
The Venezuelan government regularly accuses the opposition of fomenting plots against President Nicolas Maduro. The NGO Foro Penal counts 305 ” prisoners policies ” in Venezuela, including 30 women.
Read alsoVenezuelan presidential election: faced with an uncertain vote, “all scenarios are possible”