Nothing works. Nor the polls at half mast. Nor the state of disrepair of their political formation. Laurent Wauquiez and Xavier Bertrand have their eyes fixed on 2027, the ambition of a lifetime. The two rivals want to believe that the end of Macronism will open a new era. Theirs. The Cassandras are at their expense. “If you’re going there to have fun, there’s no point,” a Les Républicains (LR) executive recently confided to the boss of Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes (AURA). He was blown away by the determination of Nicolas Sarkozy’s former minister. Who confided to L’Express last April: “I am totally optimistic that I will win the 2027 presidential election.” Xavier Bertrand announced his “intention” to be a candidate for the Elysée in an interview with West France. Forgotten, the humiliating defeat during the 2021 primary. The boss of Hauts-de-France, swears to have “learned from [ses] errors”.
Both men grew up in the shadow of Nicolas Sarkozy. But in the light of power, when the right was in charge or aspired to recover its throne by pendulum effect. From ancient history. The National Rally (RN) weighs LR in the polls. From a competitor, the heir of the UMP has turned into a prey… or a simple object of ridicule. Laurent Wauquiez and Xavier Bertrand must break the wall Marine Le Pen, credited with 36% of voting intentions according to an Ifop survey for Current Values. “It will be her or me”, repeats the first like a slogan. “In 2027, it will not be the turn of the far right,” echoes Xavier Bertrand.
Wauquiez, opponent of a “deconstruction” left
The comparison ends there. Everyone builds their own political offer, and targets their enemy. Identifying your opponent also means forging an identity. Laurent Wauquiez has found his. “The real opposition in this country is not against Macronism or the National Rally,” he said in December at Figaro, after the adoption of the immigration law. She is facing a left that is still there, invested in a large number of influential networks, determined to lead a multicultural policy of deconstruction.” This nemesis cements a discourse with an identity tone. The ex-president of LR pinpoints the “decadence” of ‘a country struck by a “feeling of disintegration”. The collapse of values, starting with authority, would be theorized by media, academic and political forces.
The putative candidate detects in this crumbling a growing impotence of political power, restrained by the administration and the courts. As on the subject of migration: Laurent Wauquiez denounced to the Parisian, like Jordan Bardella, a “legal coup”, after the partial censorship of the Darmanin bill by the Constitutional Council. The boss of AURA hardly opposes a discourse of values to the far right, whose incompetence and supposed incapacity to exercise power he instead criticizes. There is no culture war here. Rather a secret rivalry over the ability to grasp the currents that cross France. “He sees himself as the herald of a right electorally united against the left,” assures a relative. “There are voters in Macron and the RN who are compatible with us.” “He wants to win a primary that does not say his name against Le Pen”, scathed Xavier Bertrand privately in the summer of 2022.
Bertrand against the “extremes”
The boss of Hauts-de-France is plowing another furrow. The man makes the “refusal of extremes” the heart of his political positioning. He targets the RN, convinced “that there is not a majority of fascists in our country”. And continues to call it “National Front”, an allusive rhetoric rare on the right. Xavier Bertrand wants to take advantage of a comparative advantage over his rivals. He defeated Marine Le Pen in the 2015 regional elections and knows the popular electorate has fallen into the arms of the far right. “We saw left-wing bastions tilt towards the RN,” recalls LR deputy for Pas-de-Calais Pierre-Henri Dumont.
Hauts-de-France sent 20 RN deputies to the Assembly, compared to 4 from Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes. Xavier Bertrand and Laurent Wauquiez are the product of this electoral sociology. The former Minister of Health is not at the ideological opposite of his rival: both praise work, decentralization and sovereign firmness. But he insists more on economic and social subjects and does not put an identity varnish on his speech. He took the opposite view of Laurent Wauquiez after the decision of the Constitutional Council, claiming “a deep disagreement with him on the conception of the Republic”. Jean-François Copé, supporter of a new UMP bringing together right and center, sent him a congratulatory SMS. Bertrand 2027, UMP 2.0. “It’s the same offer as Edouard Philippe, but not linked to Macron, notes an LR advisor. For the moment, this does not print.”
The central block in question
Everyone has their own strategy. One wants to beat the RN. The other stages his fight against him. But the two regional bosses want to believe that macronism will die out with the departure of Emmanuel Macron from the Elysée. That those who have approached him closely since 2017 will be branded with a red iron. “I don’t see anyone who will be able to do Sarkozy in 2007 and make a break,” confided Xavier Bertrand in 2022. “It’s not Rocard who succeeds Mitterrand,” adds Laurent Wauquiez.
This analysis suits the interests of their authors, as it puts the ambitions of Edouard Philippe or Bruno Le Maire on the shelf. But she presumes a cracking of the central bloc solely due to the departure of the head of state. An electorate cemented by its homogeneous sociology. An LR strategist doubts that this colossus is at the foot of clay. “Both are faces of the same denial. They stick their finger in the eye by thinking that the central supply will collapse.” The viability of their ambitions depends as much on this question as on a strategy against the far right.
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