A Russian ship damaged in the Black Sea, massive Russian bombings which remind the inhabitants of several Ukrainian cities rather spared from the conflict in recent months that the country is still at war, the Russian city of Belgorod struck in its center… Since the start of this week, we are witnessing a military escalation between kyiv and Moscow. Russia, which is requesting an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, promised this Saturday evening to respond to the strike against Belgorod. It is the deadliest attack against civilians in Russia since the start of the conflict in February 2022. Guillaume Lasconjarias is a military historian and associate professor at Paris Sorbonne University.
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RFI: How do you analyze the sequence of escalation in recent days?
Guillaume Lasconjarias : We often have the impression that winter rhymes with a reduction or an end to fighting, very clearly, this is not the case. We are not seeing a break. Firstly because the cold does not prohibit the maneuver and here we have two points which seem quite interesting to me: firstly the continuation or resumption by the Russians of what they had started last year , that is to say a massive campaign of terror with missile and drone strikes which has never really stopped, but which continues and which aims to have an impact on the population. On the other hand, we have the strategic importance of the Black Sea theater which is ultimately relatively little talked about and which is central because the presence of the Russian fleet creates an uncertainty that the Ukrainians want to remove, especially since it prevents them from using the maritime corridor to export grains. So, the naval battle that is currently taking place is important and it clearly shows that the Ukrainians are also capable of pushing back and striking, for example the port of Sevastopol. There had already been Moskva which had been sunk. For their part, the Russians do not plan to leave the initiative to the Ukrainians either. We are therefore in a period which is not a period of pause where the two camps, we still see today, seek to retain a share of initiative and to do so use all the means they have at their disposal.
How do you explain that the Russian air attack on Friday on several towns in Ukraine was particularly deadly with nearly 40 dead?
We can explain it in two ways. First, we can observe that on the Russian side, there is no reduction in the volume of strikes, which means that their replenishment of stocks of missiles and drones is working. It was believed for a moment that the reduction in strikes meant that it no longer had sufficient industrial resources to continue operations. De facto, here, we have the demonstration that this war economy into which Russia has entered works and that it allows in particular to resort to these terror strikes. The second point is that we can also imagine that the heart of cities, the urban heart, is probably less well protected or less densely protected than strategic places. We remember last year the Russian strikes on the electricity grid, on power plants, everything that could plunge Ukraine into darkness, as well as on command posts. So there may be new targets, because strikes on strategic locations are intercepted. But we should also not ignore that this would not be the first time that the Russians have deliberately attacked population centers to literally create an effect of terror and push the Ukrainian population to put pressure on their own government. It is interesting to note that these attacks come at a time when there is a form of discontent among the Ukrainian population and when the consensus seems to be crumbling. Last week, we discussed the issues of conscription, of this inequality between those who are at the front and those who remain at the rear. The strikes on the rear remind us that no one is actually protected.
In retaliation, the Ukrainians therefore targeted the Russian city of Belgorod. Why did you choose this city?
Choosing a city like Belgorod is firstly because it is an oblast which is close to the Ukrainian border. There are approximately thirty kilometers separating Belgorod from the border with Ukraine. We are very close to Kharkiv and Sumy. The second point is that Belgorod has been used and still is used by the Russians as a military hub through which Russian military logistics transit, via rail. So hitting Belgorod shows that this city is not safe, it shows that war can also come to the Russian theater and especially when we have such a rapid retaliatory and retaliatory strike, that has three meanings for three audiences. It is a message addressed first and foremost to the Ukrainians themselves, to tell them that the Ukrainian government and army do not let this type of crime go unpunished and we too have the means to strike. The second audience is the Russians to tell them that nothing goes unpunished. Obviously, we are in a form of strategic dialogue. Finally, the third audience is us, that is to say it is the Western powers who are arming Ukraine at a time when this is becoming more and more critical. However, it is an essential question, to allow Ukraine to be armed and to start 2024 in the best possible condition.
Last question, Russia has requested an emergency meeting of the Security Council. How can we analyze the fact that Moscow wants to add a diplomatic component to the military field?
It is a way of putting the other members of the P5, that is to say the United States, France, Great Britain, in front of a form of responsibility by telling them: “ you see who you support? They are doing the exact same thing you accuse us of doing “. This is a sort of reversal of the evidence. It is using the diplomatic weapon to place Westerners, whose position we have seen weakening in recent times, in the position of having to explain to public opinion why they continue to support arms deliveries. 2024 will be a critical moment for this Russian-Ukrainian conflict. This Russian game is rather interesting, especially since they are the specialists in blocking the functioning of the Security Council. So, there is again a form of obvious hypocrisy on the part of the Russians.
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