It’s been a mixed year for economies around the world. Global growth even slowed in 2023 according to the IMF to stand at 3% (compared to 3.5% in 2022). And the prospects for 2024 are no better, even if they vary depending on the country.
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It is one of the figures most scrutinized by economists around the world every year: growth. If the forecasts have yet to be compared with reality, they were refined during the last months of 2023. And it is clear that this year is far from being a good year: global growth fell to 3% according to the IMF , compared to 3.5% last year.
Europe performed rather well at the start of the year, even if the second half was more sluggish, in particular because of a drop in competitiveness. According to the European Central Bank, growth in the euro zone must reach 0.6%. The outlook is more encouraging for 2024: the ECB expects a drop in inflationan increase in wages and therefore a slight increase in growth.
An alarming situation in China
The big winner of 2023 is on the other side of the Atlantic. United States, that many economists saw as a recession, experienced a “ soft landing “. Understand: a clever mix of raising key rates and maintaining growth. The declines in inflation and unemployment also have a lot to do with it. Economists also predict a “normal” year for American growth in 2024, around 2%.
The situation is far from being as calm in China where, something rare, the cadres of the Communist Party recognized “difficulties” in December. Growth of around 5% is in fact far from the prosperous years before 2018. It must be said that 2023 was weighed down by a real estate sector in difficulty and a crisis of confidence among consumers. To avoid a deterioration, Beijing will absolutely have to revive domestic demand.
2023, a complicated year for African growth
The year 2023 has, overall, been complicated for the African continent. According to projections from the African Development Bank, African growth should stand at 3.4% in 2023, far from what was forecast, and above all down compared to last year. Particularly at issue: global geopolitical tensions, climate shocks, the long-term effects of the Covid-19 pandemic… But it is particularly inflation which is undermining economies. Rising energy and food prices, disruption of supply chains… All factors which have slowed consumption and therefore growth.
For example, Central Africa is expected to experience growth of 4.1% this year, compared to more than 5% in 2022. Same slowdown in West Africa, with a forecast of 2.8%, one point less than Last year. Difficulties accentuated by the impact of the security context on agriculture in certain countries, in the Sahel in particular.
AfDB economists are far from optimistic for 2024. If the conflict in the Middle East were to intensify, they fear a worsening of the inflationary crisis. The climatic phenomenon El Niño could also affect harvests and therefore the growth of the continent.