LEGISLATIVE POLLS. From the start of the campaign to the final poll published this Friday shortly before midnight, discover all the surveys on the result of the 2022 legislative elections which give LREM and Nupes neck and neck for the first round of voting…
[Mise à jour le 10 juin 2022 à 23h58] The final poll published before the truce in the first round of the 2022 legislative elections delivered results in line with the latest surveys. According to this Ipsos-Sopra Steria poll for Le Monde, unveiled shortly before midnight this Friday, June 10, the majority embodied by Ensemble! and LREM should be neck and neck with the New Popular Ecological and Social Union (Nupes) this Sunday, June 12. One point separates the two parties in this latest poll: La République en Marche is credited with 28% of the voting intentions when the coalition led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon reaches 17%.
In this last poll before the first round of the legislative elections, the National Rally (RN) seems to be left behind with 19% of the voting intentions, to which Le Monde believes it is good to associate the 5.5% of Reconquête, the formation of Eric Zemmour, i.e. a total of 24.5% for the far-right pole, not counting the voting intentions in favor of Debout la France (1%). The Republicans fail at 11%, the “various left (socialists, PRG, others) and ecologists excluding Nupes at 3% and 2.5% respectively”. This poll measures abstention at a very high level, between 51% and 55% is very likely above the 2017 record (51.3%).
This survey, the very last before the ban at the end of the campaign, was conducted on June 10 by Ipsos-Sopra Steria for Le Monde among 8,159 people, selected according to the quota method. Only respondents “certain to vote having expressed an intention to vote” were kept for the estimates, i.e. 4641 people, offering small margins of error in the survey (between 0.2 point and 1.3 point).
What does the latest poll of voting intentions say about the 2022 legislative elections?
Before the Ipsos survey detailed above and in the graph below, the latest Ifop Institute survey for LCI, published Friday, June 10, gave the Nupes (26.5%) just ahead of Ensemble! (26%), when the RN collected 19% of the voting intentions, far ahead of LR (10%) and Reconquest (5.5%). A result also similar to the very last Harris Interactive and Toluna barometer for Challenges (June 8 to 10), giving the two formations tied (26%), ahead of the RN at 20. It is therefore a real match between Emmanuel Macron and Jean -Luc Mélenchon who is looming this Sunday, June 12.
What are the projections of the 2022 legislative polls in number of seats?
According to this same latest Ifop poll for LCI, Emmanuel Macron is not guaranteed to obtain the parliamentary majority. A scenario which would be a first in the history of the Fifth Republic, the President having always seen at least 289 of his candidates and allies elected deputies. The projections made by Ifop-Fiducial estimate that Together (LREM, MoDem, Horizons, Agir) would win between 270 and 305 seats, a parliamentary majority therefore remains within voting distance and according to the low projection, it would be enough to convince a dozen deputies opposition to every vote in the Assembly in order to be able to carry out government policy. An achievable challenge. The other seats would be won mainly by the Nupes, between 180 and 210. Insufficient, even in the best of cases, to impose cohabitation. LR would record a sharp decline, 40 to 55 deputies against 100 today, when the RN could have 15 to 35 elected officials.
*The number of seats corresponds to the average between the low projection and the high projection made by the polling institute.
The various polls published in recent weeks give Together! and the Nupes at the head of the voting intentions, ahead of the National Rally. Difficult to know therefore who will be the winner of the first round, which will take place this Sunday, June 12, the trend of the polls having been maintained for almost . The movement led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the alliance formed around Emmanuel Macron were credited with 25 to 28% of the votes in a pocket handkerchief during the entire campaign or almost. In the second round, the projections give a majority for Together!, but not necessarily absolute.
What participation rate do the polls predict?
An Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey for The world, dated Friday, June 10, estimates that only 45 to 49% of respondents plan to vote in the first round of legislative elections, June 12 (average weight of 47%). The institute indicated in another survey earlier in the week that “the demobilization concerned all age categories up to 60: 37% of ‘certain to vote’ among 18-24 year olds, 36% among 25-34 year olds, 38% among 35-49 year olds, 42% among 50-59 year olds. 55% in the 60-69 category, 65% in the over 70s.
All the survey studies published during the last week of the campaign are counting on an abstention rate of more than 50% and perhaps higher than during the 2017 legislative elections. The latest forecasts to date, those of Ifop for LCI published on June 10 announces abstention up to 54%.
Do the French want cohabitation?
According to an Ifop-Fiducial poll for LCI published on Tuesday May 31, 63% of French people want to see cohabitation at the end of the 2022 legislative elections. This means that they want the opposition parties to obtain an absolute majority in the Assembly, which would force Emmanuel Macron to choose a new Prime Minister from an opposing political party. This trend was already strong on the evening of the second round of the presidential election: in an Ifop poll for TFI, LCI, Paris Match and Sud Radio, 68% of voters questioned wanted that at the end of the legislative elections, “the oppositions represent the majority deputies to the National Assembly and impose cohabitation on Emmanuel Macron”.
Difficult to produce reliable polls for the legislative elections
Please note: the votes for the legislative elections are very different from those cast for the presidential election. Other components structure this vote: the weight of the parties established in the territories, the political personalities appreciated locally, the political rapprochements at the level of the constituencies, and the method of voting, majority in two rounds. All this makes the job of pollsters difficult. But if it is impossible to make precise projections, certain elements must be taken into account to measure the balance of power.
In the 566 metropolitan and overseas constituencies (excluding the constituencies of French nationals living abroad), Emmanuel Macron came out on top, in the first round of the presidential election, in 256. Marine Le Pen in 206, Jean -Luc Mélenchon in 104, Valérie Pécresse in… none. But remember that in 2017, Marine Le Pen managed to lead the first round of the presidential election in 216 constituencies; the far-right party had only managed to elect 9 deputies.