20 years later, the return of parliamentary cohabitation in France?

In May 2002, Lionel Jospin left Matignon after five years at the head of the French government. The President of the Republic Jacques Chirac, who has just finished his seven-year term, is largely renewed for a five-year term, and the legislative elections give him an absolute majority. Since then, there has not been a single cohabitation in France. The Presidents of the Republic have been able to count on an absolute majority in the National Assembly. Nevertheless, the 2022 legislative elections, which are more uncertain than the previous ones, could lead to an unprecedented situation.

Two first cohabitations acclaimed

In 1986, two years before the end of François Mitterrand’s seven-year term, the French sanctioned the socialist president, who lost the absolute majority in the Assembly. Jacques Chirac, right-wing man, is elected Prime Minister.

At that time, even if the result was expected, French society feared further instability. ” There was this narrative, at the start of the first cohabitation, of believing that the State and its institutions were not going to hold. We thought it would last a few days or a few weeks. Finally, we realized that the institutions of the V^e Republic were flexible enough to hold “, describes Julien Robin, doctoral student in political science at the University of Montreal on parliamentary questions.

The French do not seem to have hated the experience: they repeated it five years later. During the velvet cohabitation, Édouard Balladur and François Mitterrand work in a rather peaceful way. A cordial understanding which is also explained by the age of the two men, explains Mathias Bernard, professor of History and specialist in the political history of contemporary France: ” Mitterrand was at the end of his political career, without ambition for renewal, Édouard Balladur too, which gave rise to a form of management of relations much more coated “.

The French then have the feeling that cohabitation contributes to a form of balance of power between that of the president and that of the rest of the government, supported by Parliament. It allows a kind of national union, which authorizes all political sensitivities to participate in political life or government action.

A third unloved cohabitation

But the third, from 1997 to 2022, leaves in the minds of the French a more nuanced image, cohabitation not being planned, the result of early elections. The rivalry is more present there: Jacques Chirac is ambitious, Lionel Jospin too, and both do not intend to leave political life like their predecessors. It lasts twice as long as the first ones, and at the end, relations between the two heads of power deteriorate.

Contrary to popular belief, however, Parliament is operating at full speed. ” There was the changeover to the euro, the 35-hour PACS… It wasn’t stagnation. This image of an immobilized parliament has more to do with a presidentialist perception both of public opinion and even of the political class than with institutions which provided for the continuity of the exercise of power in a period of cohabitation without any problem. “recalls Mathias Bernard.

Presidentialization of power

Despite everything, from September 2000, the five-year reform changed the situation. Henceforth, the legislative election will follow that of the President of the Republic, elected for five years. A trend towards the presidentialization of power will then gain momentum. The French will follow, develops Julien Robin: “ IThere has always been this tendency for voters to transform the presidential try and give a majority to the elected president. The inversion of the electoral calendar reinforces this alignment of the planets for the president. »

The presidentialization of the regime, initiated by Charles de Gaulle is accelerating. Legislative elections are attracting less and less voters, while the risk of cohabitation has receded for the elected president. All the presidents since 2002 have obtained an absolute majority in the Assembly. Even Emmanuel Macron, whom the editorial writers gave the loser in the legislative elections because without a political party established in the constituencies, managed the feat of obtaining a large majority in the National Assembly five years ago.

Cohabitation on the menu for 2022 ?

Faced with the presidentialization of power and the disinterest of voters, especially the youngest, in the legislative elections, opponents of the elected president are increasingly calling for the idea of ​​a third presidential round. For the first time in 20 years, cohabitation has even become an electoral argument in the 2022 campaign with Nupes, the new union of the left. Jean-Luc Mélenchon thus presents himself as the future Prime Minister of Emmanuel Macron, repeating it to anyone who wants to hear it, like a self-fulfilling antiphon.

” The objective is to mobilize more because we know that the legislative elections are one of the least attended elections since 1993, there is a continuous drop in participation in the legislative elections », Analyzes Julien Robin.

This strategy goes in the direction of the French. According to an Ipsos-Steria survey, 56% of them do not want Emmanuel Macron to have a majority in the Assembly. Among the remaining 44%, 24% only want it “ by consistency », in the right line of « the alignment of the planets mentioned above by Julien Robin. But on the other hand, a recent BVA study for RTL and Orange showed that 69% of French people did not want Jean-Luc Mélenchon as Prime Minister. Cohabitation therefore seems unlikely, except in the event of exceptional mobilization of the left-wing electorate, especially among 18-24 year olds. In the latest polls, Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble coalition won almost half of the seats in the Assembly.

However, and this is the whole point of this legislative election, the ballot comes after the re-election of an outgoing president, who has already been able to govern as he wished. However, the French like change, recalls Mathias Bernard: “ In 2007, Sarkozy was opposed to the incumbent president. He had campaigned on the breakup. In 2012, ” the change is now “. In 2017, the disruption is now. This dynamic of change is an electoral asset. A theoretical advantage for the alliance of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, but which also explains the major reshuffle of the government by the president last May and the change of name of the presidential party to Renaissance.

Towards a return to the role of the Assembly?

The most likely scenario is the weakening of the outgoing majority. A scenario which, to govern, would be more complex than cohabitation. In the event of a relative majority, that is to say with less than half of the 577 seats in the Assembly, Emmanuel Macron will have to seek deputies from the opposition. If he doesn’t, that would mean votes on a case-by-case basis. ” In the case of a relative majority, there may be more delays, complexity, procedure and blocking “Warns Mathias Bernard.

Another possibility also, the prospect of an absolute majority which withers at the end of the five-year term. ” Emmanuel Macron will not be able to stand again and therefore probable candidacies will emerge, which would push the suitors to dissociate themselves from the outgoing majority, dissociate themselves from possible unpopular reforms carried out by the President of the Republic. », Projects Julien Robin.

Cohabitation, a phenomenon provided for in the laws of the V^e Republic, is not meant to be exceptional. But since the reform of the quinquennium, its existence is for the moment more of the electoral argument than of political reality. On the other hand, the more probable case of a weakened majority, although complex for the government, would have the merit of bringing up to date the primary role of the Assembly: to be a place of ideas, where the majority is changing and evolves according to the debates between the deputies.

► Read also: French legislative 2022: what are the challenges for the different parties?