LAST SURVEY. The dynamics recorded in recent days on voting intentions are clearly in favor of Marine Le Pen. Here is the latest poll and our compiler of surveys from the first round and second round of the 2022 presidential election.
[Mis à jour le 5 avril à 11h51] Find on this page updated every day the last poll published on the presidential election and our compiler of surveys.
In a few days, we will know the names of the qualified candidates for the second round of the presidential election. The most likely scenario at this stage is the return of the Macron-Le Pen duel, since all the polls carried out for weeks on the election give them the lead in voting intentions. In this last week of the campaign before the first round, the hypothesis of a victory in the 2nd round for Marine Le Pen is no longer excluded, polls give the two probable finalists neck and neck, in the margin of error.
Polls are part of an election and the 2022 presidential election is no exception. Criticized by some observers for their propensity to guide voters, surveys of voting intentions have however multiplied in recent months. Many photographs of public opinion are taken, published, commented on, with sometimes – marginally – contradictory results as the call to the polls to designate the tenant of the Elysée approaches.
The polling institutes which publish studies of voting intentions (Ifop-Fiducial, Elabe, Harris Interactive, Ipsos Sopra Steria, BVA, Odoxa, Cluster 17) carry out “waves” on a fixed model, according to their own methodologies. Here is the latest poll carried out on the first round of the 2022 presidential election.
If they make it possible to deliver a vision of the opinions of the French people at a given moment, the differences in the panels tested as well as the margins of error to be taken into account offer a lot of uncertainties on the finality of the results. It should also be noted that while several polling institutes test voting intentions, Linternaute also offers a large barometer carried out with the YouGov institute, and summarizes, on this page, the major polling trends.
All the polls carried out so far give Emmanuel Macron qualified for the second round of the 2022 presidential election, and all have even placed him since the summer of 2021 at the top of the voting intentions.
For the past few weeks, all the polls have given Marine Le Pen, the candidate of the National Rally, second place. The Harris Interactive institute placed Eric Zemmour ahead of the president of the far-right party a few times in October, as did Ipsos for Le Monde at the end of October and Ifop Fiducial for LCI and Le Figaro at the start of November. Valérie Pécresse took advantage of a strong survey dynamic in December, she now appears far from the second round of the presidential election.
The polling institutes test several hypotheses during the same survey, the results of the polls therefore evolve according to the personalities tested, with effects on the candidacies of the other political formations.
In the event of a second round confrontation in the presidential election between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron, all the polls carried out until then give Emmanuel Macron the winner.
Poll Macron – Mélenchon
In the event of a second round between Emmanuel Macron and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, once again, Emmanuel Macron is given a position to win the presidential election.
Poll Macron – Pécresse
In the event of a second round between Emmanuel Macron and Valérie Pécresse, candidate of the right, once again Emmanuel Macron is given a position to win the presidential election.
Poll Macron – Zemmour
In the event of a second round between Emmanuel Macron and Eric Zemmour, once again Emmanuel Macron is given a position to win the presidential election.
All polls of intention to vote give the head of state in the best possible position for a head of state in office. Linternaute.com’s political barometer, carried out with YouGov, gives credence to the prospect of seeing Emmanuel Macron play the leading roles during this presidential election. According to our survey, no rival appears, in the eyes of the French, able to make a better President of the Republic.
Remember that the polls are in no way a forecast of the results to come in April 2022: these surveys make it possible to measure the balance of power and take the pulse of opinion at a given moment. The dynamics of the campaign and the current events that punctuate the few months before the election often change the voting intentions and the opinion of the French on this vote.