Tells about the strongest events and the future – after 1,000 days of war • “This is forever”
Joakim Paasikivi, previously lieutenant colonel and military expert
When Russia entered Ukraine on February 24, 2022, did you think it would look like it does today?
– No. I and many others imagined that Russia would gain an advantage, above all an air supremacy, and then be able to get a much faster advantage that never came. I phrased it at the beginning as thinking that the best Ukraine could hope for was to lose so slowly as to get a good seat at the negotiating table. It was obviously completely wrong.
What event do you think has most affected the war so far?
– It will be the first month, March and April 2022, when Ukraine holds Kiev. The Russians were forced out north of Kyiv. That whole battle for a month or so along with Zelenskyy remaining, it can be summed up in Ukrainian successful resistance. It changed the whole premise of Russia and it has led to them still going 1,000 days later.
When and how will the war end?
– Here there are two main scenarios. One is a risk of forcing a bad peace agreement. That it will be the Americans who force Ukraine to make concessions. Then you have not ended the war, you have postponed it for a while. The second is that if Ukraine receives continued support, there is a chance that Russia will be in such bad shape economically, industrially and militarily by the end of next year that they cannot continue.
Joakim Paasikivi.
Joakim Paasikivi.
Photo: Jessica Gow / TT
Li Bennich-Björkman, professor of political science
When Russia entered Ukraine on February 24, 2022, did you think it would look like it does today?
– No. I thought like many others that Russia had a military advantage that would show up pretty quickly. Not because I wanted it, of course, but because that’s how I thought it looked.
What event do you think has most affected the war so far?
– I would definitely say the initial and fairly quick support and backing that Ukraine has received from its Baltic neighbors and the EU. It has meant that Ukraine has been able to fight much more effectively and with better weapons than it had from the beginning. But also that it has been significant morally. Such an event as the massacre in Butja which happened quite early and was a huge eye opener to the outside world about what a cruel and brutal regime the Russian is. But also the destruction of Mariupol, the enormous destruction and annihilation has also affected the war.
When and how will the war end?
– Sometime in the future there will be some kind of truce, but the war will not end. This is forever, it can never return to anything. Russia has tried to destroy and wipe out its neighbor and that war, if it becomes a cold or frozen war, will continue. But I hope that the violent part, that the killing and the killing will stop, but my judgment is that we cannot have a Russia that is a victorious power. You can’t even imagine it.
Li Bennich-Björkman
Li Bennich-Björkman
Photo: Uppsala University
Jörgen Elfving, formerly lieutenant colonel
When Russia entered Ukraine on February 24, 2022, did you think it would look like it does today?
– At the time, it was difficult to imagine how this conflict would turn out. We had the image of the Russian armed forces as they developed since the military reform was initiated in 2009, and the image that was presented and which was partly accepted in the West, was that these are well-trained, well-manned and highly potent forces. But that image was already put to shame when you saw in the first days how badly they succeeded with this attack. But also that the Ukrainian forces we saw going into battle in February 2022 were fundamentally different from what was the case in April 2014.
What event do you think has most affected the war so far?
– I would say that it is the failure on the Russian side to take Hostomel Airport in the opening stages of the war. It is a traditional Russian tactic that was done in Prague in 1968 and in Afghanistan in 1979, it has been a concept that has been believed in, to take an airport near a capital and launch an attack from there. But it did not succeed from the Russian side.
When and how will the war end?
– There are a number of possible scenarios. One is that the new American president succeeds in his intention to end the war, but how he has thought of it, no one knows. The other option is for either side to run out of resources, either material or personnel as this is a war of attrition, resulting in throwing in the towel and admitting defeat.
Jörgen Elffing
Jörgen Elffing
Photo: Caisa Rasmussen / TT