Despite the fact that the Social Democrats are going strong, the gap between the government and the red-greens is narrowing.
It is almost a dead race between the blocks.
In Demoskop’s voter barometer for August, there are small changes compared to the previous month. The gap between the two blocs continues to narrow. The opposition now has an advantage of 1.9 percentage points. Those parties land on 49.8 percent, while the government base collects 47.9 percent.
– Since the turn of the year, the Social Democrats are at peak levels that the party has not been at since the beginning of 2014 when it was an election year and there was a change of power. Although things are going well for the Social Democrats, MP and V are backing down somewhat in this survey. The party in the government base is increasing slightly overall, but it is small movements for individual parties that, in total, make the gap between the blocs smaller rather than a party doing very well alongside the Social Democrats, says Karin Nelsson, CEO of Demoskop.
The Tidö parties remain at roughly the same level as in the last survey.
“Struck by the government”
– You can imagine that the government would back down as you usually punish parties in government positions, but now the situation is such that the government base is doing well here. We saw at the beginning of the period that after Turkey agreed to approve Sweden’s NATO application, it was seen as a success. Then the turn of events with Koran burnings and the deteriorating security situation have hit the government instead. But overall there are no big differences. The government had a hard time after the election with high price levels and delays in the payment of electricity subsidies. There was talk that we were going through a very dark time. Now some improvements are visible in the economy and unemployment is not as high as feared. It can be a factor that strengthens the government’s foundation, says Karin Nelsson.
full screen
Next
Magdalena Andersson.
1 / 2Photo: Lotte Fernvall
She says that the issues that have been in focus lately, such as the NATO process and the Koran burnings, favor the larger parties.
– The smaller parties get no space in such a political situation. They do not come forward in a by-election period like this, which is dominated by strong issues such as NATO and Koran burnings. There you can see that the Moderates, the Social Democrats and to some extent the Sweden Democrats benefit.
Big difference between the sexes
The survey also shows that there is a big difference between how men and women vote. If only women were allowed to vote, the red-greens would have a large advantage with nearly 60 percent of the vote. If only men were allowed to vote, right-wing parties would get 54 percent of the vote.
– You can see a big difference between how men and women vote. It is about which issues women and men think are important. For women, it is care and social care, school and climate, issues to which the parties on the left attach greater importance. Law and order, defense and entrepreneurship are important issues for men and these are issues that the parties on the right raise.
The question asked was: Which party would you vote for if there were parliamentary elections today?
Numbers in parentheses show the difference to the last measurement a month ago.
FACTS
The survey was carried out by Demoskop on behalf of Aftonbladet within the framework of the Inizio panel, which reflects the Swedish people. The target group is the general public aged 18 and over. The survey includes 2,471 interviews during the period 15 July–2 August and is conducted as a web survey.
The question asked was:
“Which party would you vote for if there were parliamentary elections today?” The question about party sympathy is supplemented with an open question where the respondent describes in their own words how they reason about the party choice.
The selection is pre-stratified and weighted by age, gender, region and party in the previous election.
For a party to be reported under its own name, the party must receive at least 1.5 percent in three consecutive polls or the party must receive at least 3.5 percent in a single poll. For parties that are represented in the Riksdag, the party’s support is reported regardless of size in the measurement.
Read more
Join our opinion panel
Do you want to take part and answer Demoskop’s surveys where we find out what the Swedish people think about, for example, social issues and politics? Results are presented, among other things, in Aftonbladet. Answering is voluntary, you are anonymous and can opt out whenever you want. Click on the link to sign up.